Consensus PnL $31K · win rate 95% (111–6, n=117) · was PM monthly #997 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$31.4K
Record
111W / 6L
Win Rate
95.0%
of 117 settled
Batting Avg
42.1%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#156
Source
PM monthly #997 + pinned
Trades
2,753
Markets
149
Volume
$10.7M
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Yes $26K · now 54¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (74% of 27)
Specialties
140 settled consensus markets · held side won 96% at an average entry of 97¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where no1yet's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Weakest: Geopolitics — held side won 96% of 28 at an average 97¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%
- 30–50¢: 1%(won 0% of 1)
- 50–70¢: 2%(won 67% of 3)
- 70¢ and up: 97%(won 98% of 136)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.