Consensus PnL -$14K · win rate 63% (669–400, n=1069) · was PM monthly #990 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-14.0K
Record
669W / 400L
Win Rate
63.0%
of 1069 settled
Batting Avg
40.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1008
Source
PM monthly #990
Trades
146
Markets
1,126
Volume
$1.8M
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 2 on the consensus side (50%)- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO5) - PARI Universe PlayoffsTeam Yandex $504 · now 20¢ · in at 57¢against the consensus (Team Spirit)
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 3 WinnerTeam Yandex $214 · now 57¢ · in at 56¢with the consensus (65% of 66)
Specialties
1,083 settled consensus markets · held side won 65% at an average entry of 65¢- Tennis
+9 pts
side won 77% of 69 · avg entry 68¢
ROI +5%
- NBA
+3 pts
side won 71% of 78 · avg entry 68¢
ROI −3%
Weakest: Esports — held side won 64% of 853 at an average 65¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 1%(won 9% of 11)
- 30–50¢: 13%(won 42% of 143)
- 50–70¢: 49%(won 60% of 529)
- 70¢ and up: 37%(won 81% of 400)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.