Consensus PnL $24K · win rate 94% (102–7, n=109) · PM monthly #742 · holds 3 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$24.0K
Record
102W / 7L
Win Rate
94.0%
of 109 settled
Batting Avg
50.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#171
Source
PM monthly #742
Trades
655
Markets
580
Volume
$3.6M
Top consensus positions
3 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 3 on the consensus side (100%)- Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-11-01?Yes $20K · now 100¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (69% of 49)
- Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-10-31?Yes $31 · now 83¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (75% of 24)
- Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-11-01?Yes $29 · now 55¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (45% of 27)
Specialties
92 settled consensus markets · held side won 93% at an average entry of 93¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where olpy's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 4%(won 25% of 4)
- 30–50¢: 0%
- 50–70¢: 1%(won 0% of 1)
- 70¢ and up: 95%(won 98% of 87)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.