Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-11-01?

6 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (43%) · Yes at 66¢ · $32K held · ends Nov 1

Yes66¢No34¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 43%

Total Value

$32.2K

Combined PnL

-$22.35

Smart Money Entry

65¢ → 65.5¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 14 top traders (43%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes66%

No35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$25.3K

Total Shares38,919

Combined PnL+$8.84

No8 traders

Total Value$6.9K

Total Shares18,589

Combined PnL-$31.19

Yes — 43%No — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
p1252	Yesavg 65¢	$12.7K	$12.6K	-$97.56	54% 105-91 (196)
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34	Yesavg 65¢	$12.1K	$12.2K	+$93.3	49% 167-175 (342)
CA CannaeCTR	Noavg 35.1¢	$3.6K	$3.6K	-$22.04	53% 16119-14285 (30404)
AN Anon455CTR	Noavg 35¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$25	55% 3009-2439 (5448)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Noavg 35¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$17.31	49% 13022-13588 (26610)
MY myxi	Yesavg 65¢	$411.45	$408.29	-$3.16	67% 378-183 (561)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 38.6¢	$129.84	$128.28	-$1.57	58% 42698-31074 (73772)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 35¢	$81.2	$82.36	+$1.16	57% 29237-21620 (50857)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Noavg 35¢	$66.85	$65.89	-$0.95	54% 3099-2669 (5768)
AN AnonymousUsername	Yesavg 61¢	$182.71	$64.26	+$15.86	72% 6830-2625 (9455)
fyrskenCTR<$100	Noavg 37¢	$50	$50	+$0	49% 290-305 (595)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Noavg 36¢	$7.2	$7.1	-$0.1	51% 1529-1481 (3010)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 61¢	$4.27	$4.41	+$0.18	53% 5640-5054 (10694)
PL PLACEYOURBETS123<$100	Yesavg 59¢	$2.95	$3.15	+$0.23	59% 66-45 (111)

p1252

Yes

Invested

$12,682.68

Value

$12.6K

PnL

-$97.56

Record

54%

105-91 (196)

1l2ihj34li12u34

Yes

Invested

$12,129.07

Value

$12.2K

PnL

+$93.3

Record

49%

167-175 (342)

CannaeCTR

Invested

$3,638.05

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$22.04

Record

53%

16119-14285 (30404)

Anon455CTR

Invested

$1,750

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$25

Record

55%

3009-2439 (5448)

LuckyLooCTR

Invested

$1,211.77

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$17.31

Record

49%

13022-13588 (26610)

myxi

Yes

Invested

$411.45

Value

$408.29

PnL

-$3.16

Record

67%

378-183 (561)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$129.84

Value

$128.28

PnL

-$1.57

Record

58%

42698-31074 (73772)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$81.2

Value

$82.36

PnL

+$1.16

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Invested

$66.85

Value

$65.89

PnL

-$0.95

Record

54%

3099-2669 (5768)

AnonymousUsername

Yes

Invested

$182.71

Value

$64.26

PnL

+$15.86

Record

72%

6830-2625 (9455)

fyrskenCTR<$100

Invested

$50

Value

$50

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

290-305 (595)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Invested

$7.2

Value

$7.1

PnL

-$0.1

Record

51%

1529-1481 (3010)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.27

Value

$4.41

PnL

+$0.18

Record

53%

5640-5054 (10694)

PLACEYOURBETS123<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.95

Value

$3.15

PnL

+$0.23

Record

59%

66-45 (111)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 66%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 14 top traders (43%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.6%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.