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E8
Consensus PnL $26K · win rate 48% (135–146, n=281) · PM monthly #568 · holds 2 consensus positions
0xe86aaecf...3929a901Polymarket
⚖️Arb🔄Contrarian🎰Degen
Consensus PnL
$26.5K
Record
135W / 146L
Win Rate
48.0%
of 281 settled
Batting Avg
47.1%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1892
Source
PM monthly #568
Trades
560
Markets
487
Volume
$394.0K
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 2 on the consensus side (100%)- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO5) - PARI Universe PlayoffsTeam Spirit $741 · now 82¢ · in at 37¢with the consensus (50% of 39)
- Real Madrid CF leading at halftime?No $87 · now 0¢ · in at 24¢with the consensus (73% of 11)
Specialties
194 settled consensus markets · held side won 99% at an average entry of 60¢- Esports
+39 pts
side won 99% of 189 · avg entry 60¢
ROI +41%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 5%(won 89% of 9)
- 30–50¢: 23%(won 100% of 44)
- 50–70¢: 46%(won 99% of 89)
- 70¢ and up: 27%(won 100% of 52)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.