Consensus PnL $3.4M · win rate 50% (941–941, n=1882) · PM monthly #181 · no open consensus position
Consensus PnL
$3.4M
Record
941W / 941L
Win Rate
50.0%
of 1882 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1737
Source
PM monthly #181
Trades
408
Markets
2,326
Volume
$19.9M
Specialties
872 settled consensus markets · held side won 99% at an average entry of 50¢- College Football
+49 pts
side won 100% of 511 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +47%
- NFL
+48 pts
side won 97% of 333 · avg entry 49¢
ROI +54%
- MLB
+47 pts
side won 100% of 18 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +53%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 5%(won 93% of 43)
- 30–50¢: 41%(won 99% of 361)
- 50–70¢: 49%(won 99% of 428)
- 70¢ and up: 5%(won 100% of 40)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.