Consensus PnL $7.2K · win rate 86% (6–1, n=7) · was PM monthly #633 · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$7.2K
Record
6W / 1L
Win Rate
86.0%
of 7 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#329
Source
PM monthly #633
Trades
4
Markets
11
Volume
$138.6K
Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 4 of 4 on the consensus side (100%)- Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?No $14K · now 97¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (86% of 22)
- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?No $9.4K · now 96¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (81% of 31)
- Will Ethereum reach $5,500 by December 31, 2026?No $4.3K · now 98¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (80% of 10)
- Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?No $4.3K · now 97¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (86% of 21)
Specialties
7 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 78¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where stocastico's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%
- 30–50¢: 0%
- 50–70¢: 43%(won 100% of 3)
- 70¢ and up: 57%(won 100% of 4)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.