Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?

25 of 31 top Polymarket traders hold No (81%) · No at 96¢ · $278K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 81%

Total Value

$277.6K

Combined PnL

$-24.3K

Smart Money Entry

89.7¢ → 96.2¢

+7% since entry · 25 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
$100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

25 of 31 top traders (81%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No25 traders

Total Value$273.4K

Total Shares284,432

Combined PnL+$18.9K

Yes6 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares103,557

Combined PnL$-43.2K

No — 81%Yes — 19%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

25 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

81% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 91% · 11

Aligned

sharpNo 94% · 17

Aligned

sniperNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 56% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 93% · 15

Aligned

Top 1000No 77% · 22

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952	Noavg 91.1¢	$94.4K	$99.7K	+$5.3K	85% 605-108 (713)
OE oegdatam	Noavg 91¢	$41.3K	$43.6K	+$2.4K	87% 149-22 (171)
SI Siddhartha1	Noavg 94¢	$25.0K	$24.0K	+$537.5	51% 59-57 (116)
DF DFV2	Noavg 91¢	$24.3K	$23.8K	+$1.3K	91% 198-19 (217)
AV Avamax	Noavg 93.6¢	$16.6K	$17.1K	+$445.34	81% 421-101 (522)
LA Lasting-Dessert	Noavg 94¢	$9.4K	$9.6K	+$215.01	89% 563-67 (630)
PH phdcapital	Noavg 68¢	$6.8K	$9.6K	+$2.8K	94% 259-17 (276)
ST stocastico	Noavg 91¢	$8.9K	$9.4K	+$496.44	— 5-1 (6)
LU LucasMeow	Noavg 96¢	$5.9K	$5.9K	+$9.18	96% 160-7 (167)
BA ballinco	Noavg 87.4¢	$2.9K	$5.1K	+$775.97	53% 153-136 (289)
AF afdafdafdafdafd	Noavg 90¢	$4.6K	$4.9K	+$310.88	73% 196-73 (269)
BabyIBeenWatchingYou	Noavg 51.7¢	$2.0K	$3.8K	+$1.7K	65% 966-523 (1489)
Talophex	Noavg 94.2¢	$3.3K	$3.4K	+$67.06	91% 929-95 (1024)
timebrotime	Noavg 86¢	$2.5K	$2.8K	+$289.73	67% 893-435 (1328)
AgricultureSecretaryCTR	Yesavg 66.7¢	$42.9K	$2.6K	$-40.3K	83% 3802-802 (4604)
Debosnys	Noavg 90¢	$2.3K	$2.5K	+$159.9	89% 1868-225 (2093)
FA failstober	Noavg 45¢	$999.89	$2.1K	+$1.1K	26% 351-985 (1336)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 92.9¢	$1.9K	$2.1K	+$131.58	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
justdance	Noavg 75.9¢	$1.2K	$1.7K	+$500.13	52% 2726-2552 (5278)
BTCmaxiCTR	Yesavg 8.6¢	$2.8K	$1.3K	$-1.5K	51% 32-31 (63)
LA LaarsY	Noavg 86.5¢	$952	$961	+$96.05	51% 3435-3355 (6790)
HA HAOI	Noavg 95¢	$535.46	$541.66	+$5.92	100% 20-0 (20)
4751346	Noavg 93¢	$465	$480.5	+$15.75	72% 1257-483 (1740)
bosshog	Noavg 42¢	$107.07	$245.28	+$138.21	72% 1052-415 (1467)
DI Dimpled-FoalCTR	Yesavg 5.9¢	$203.46	$135.92	-$70.25	54% 229-195 (424)

0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952

Invested

$94,447.3

Value

$99.7K

PnL

+$5.3K

Record

85%

605-108 (713)

oegdatam

Invested

$41,278.15

Value

$43.6K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

87%

149-22 (171)

Siddhartha1

Invested

$25,000

Value

$24.0K

PnL

+$537.5

Record

51%

59-57 (116)

DFV2

Invested

$24,327.73

Value

$23.8K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

91%

198-19 (217)

Avamax

Invested

$16,612.18

Value

$17.1K

PnL

+$445.34

Record

81%

421-101 (522)

Lasting-Dessert

Invested

$9,400

Value

$9.6K

PnL

+$215.01

Record

89%

563-67 (630)

phdcapital

Invested

$6,799.99

Value

$9.6K

PnL

+$2.8K

Record

94%

259-17 (276)

stocastico

Invested

$8,900

Value

$9.4K

PnL

+$496.44

Record

—

5-1 (6)

LucasMeow

Invested

$5,865.47

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$9.18

Record

96%

160-7 (167)

ballinco

Invested

$2,901.1

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$775.97

Record

53%

153-136 (289)

afdafdafdafdafd

Invested

$4,559.66

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$310.88

Record

73%

196-73 (269)

BabyIBeenWatchingYou

Invested

$2,034.02

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

65%

966-523 (1489)

Talophex

Invested

$3,289.25

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$67.06

Record

91%

929-95 (1024)

timebrotime

Invested

$2,480.69

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$289.73

Record

67%

893-435 (1328)

AgricultureSecretaryCTR

Yes

Invested

$42,911.2

Value

$2.6K

PnL

$-40.3K

Record

83%

3802-802 (4604)

Debosnys

Invested

$2,340

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$159.9

Record

89%

1868-225 (2093)

failstober

Invested

$999.89

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

26%

351-985 (1336)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$1,924.06

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$131.58

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

justdance

Invested

$1,198.36

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$500.13

Record

52%

2726-2552 (5278)

BTCmaxiCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,803.46

Value

$1.3K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

51%

32-31 (63)

LaarsY

Invested

$952

Value

$961

PnL

+$96.05

Record

51%

3435-3355 (6790)

HAOI

Invested

$535.46

Value

$541.66

PnL

+$5.92

Record

100%

20-0 (20)

4751346

Invested

$465

Value

$480.5

PnL

+$15.75

Record

72%

1257-483 (1740)

bosshog

Invested

$107.07

Value

$245.28

PnL

+$138.21

Record

72%

1052-415 (1467)

Dimpled-FoalCTR

Yes

Invested

$203.46

Value

$135.92

PnL

-$70.25

Record

54%

229-195 (424)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
$100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

25 of 31 top traders (81%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

25 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

81% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 91% · 11

Aligned

sharpNo 94% · 17

Aligned

sniperNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 56% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 93% · 15

Aligned

Top 1000No 77% · 22

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.3%

96.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.