Consensus PnL -$990K · win rate 50% (125–123, n=248) · was PM monthly #576 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$-990.0K
Record
125W / 123L
Win Rate
50.0%
of 248 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1762
Source
PM monthly #576
Trades
140
Markets
257
Volume
$7.0M
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- Utah vs. FlyersUtah $27K · now 61¢ · in at 60¢with the consensus (33% of 10)
Specialties
125 settled consensus markets · held side won 98% at an average entry of 57¢- NHL
+41 pts
side won 97% of 92 · avg entry 56¢
ROI +42%
- MLB
+35 pts
side won 100% of 16 · avg entry 65¢
ROI +39%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 2%(won 67% of 3)
- 30–50¢: 26%(won 100% of 32)
- 50–70¢: 61%(won 97% of 76)
- 70¢ and up: 11%(won 100% of 14)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.