Utah vs. Flyers
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Utah (38%) · Utah at 61¢ · $40K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Utah
8
Utah 38%
1 arb excluded
$40.0K
-$3.97
60¢ → 60.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUtah at 61%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
-5 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
38% of non-arb traders are on Utah. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA taylorsversion | Utahavg 60¢ | $26.3K | $26.3K | +$0 | 50% 130-129 (259) |
AN AnonymousUsernameARB<$100 | Utahavg 60¢ | $6.0K | $6.0K | +$55.75 | 72% 6827-2621 (9448) |
| └ Utah leg | Utahavg 60¢ | $4.7K | $4.7K | +$39.05 | |
| └ Flyers leg | Flyersavg 39¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$16.7 | |
0X 0x0A77exmm | Utahavg 60¢ | $6.0K | $6.0K | +$0 | 54% 2337-2025 (4362) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Flyersavg 39¢ | $780 | $780 | +$0 | 58% 42674-31054 (73728) |
 fyrskenCTR | Flyersavg 40¢ | $419.96 | $409.54 | -$5.17 | 49% 290-305 (595) |
HE HerdoniaCTR | Flyersavg 39¢ | $396.56 | $396.56 | +$0 | 54% 3403-2950 (6353) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Flyersavg 39¢ | $78 | $79 | +$1 | 55% 7314-5881 (13195) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Utahavg 60.2¢ | $34.19 | $34.08 | +$0.17 | 56% 14224-11030 (25254) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Flyersavg 39¢ | $1.95 | $1.95 | +$0.03 | 52% 7499-6786 (14285) |
Invested
$26,253.74
Value
$26.3K
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
130-129 (259)
Invested
$5,988.3
Value
$6.0K
PnL
+$55.75
Record
72%
6827-2621 (9448)
Both legs:
Invested
$6,000
Value
$6.0K
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
2337-2025 (4362)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$780
Value
$780
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
42674-31054 (73728)
fyrskenCTRInvested
$419.96
Value
$409.54
PnL
-$5.17
Record
49%
290-305 (595)
Invested
$396.56
Value
$396.56
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
3403-2950 (6353)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$78
Value
$79
PnL
+$1
Record
55%
7314-5881 (13195)
Invested
$34.19
Value
$34.08
PnL
+$0.17
Record
56%
14224-11030 (25254)
Invested
$1.95
Value
$1.95
PnL
+$0.03
Record
52%
7499-6786 (14285)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.