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A5
Consensus PnL $14K · win rate 42% (47–64, n=111) · PM monthly #638 · holds 1 consensus position
0xa5a822f6...de2a8aedPolymarket
⚖️Arb🔄Contrarian🎰Degen
Consensus PnL
$13.8K
Record
47W / 64L
Win Rate
42.0%
of 111 settled
Batting Avg
53.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2070
Source
PM monthly #638
Trades
129
Markets
183
Volume
$52.8K
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?Yes $229 · now 94¢ · in at 18¢with the consensus (90% of 10)
Specialties
49 settled consensus markets · held side won 86% at an average entry of 49¢- Finance
+37 pts
side won 85% of 48 · avg entry 49¢
ROI +17%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 41%(won 70% of 20)
- 30–50¢: 8%(won 100% of 4)
- 50–70¢: 16%(won 100% of 8)
- 70¢ and up: 35%(won 94% of 17)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.