Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (90%) · Yes at 94¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 4

Yes94¢No6¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 90%

Total Value

$10.8K

Combined PnL

$4.0K

Smart Money Entry

56.8¢ → 93.8¢

+65% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes94%

No6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$10.7K

Total Shares11,470

Combined PnL+$4.0K

No1 trader

Total Value$120.35

Total Shares79

Combined PnL+$27.3

Yes — 90%No — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Late

721h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

15 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

90% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FI firegold	Yesavg 61.2¢	$4.4K	$5.9K	+$1.9K	59% 323-224 (547)
perfectnostalgia	Yesavg 53.5¢	$1.3K	$2.2K	+$952.96	55% 338-273 (611)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271	Yesavg 52.1¢	$1.1K	$2.0K	+$870.98	32% 4495-9638 (14133)
TE test456y78	Yesavg 18.5¢	$44.1	$228.85	+$184.75	36% 81-141 (222)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR	Noavg 68.5¢	$95.84	$120.35	+$27.3	39% 175-269 (444)
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438<$100	Yesavg 50.6¢	$68.68	$88.95	+$20.27	50% 357-357 (714)
LI lissartter<$100	Yesavg 92.4¢	$86.73	$87.98	+$1.25	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Yesavg 54.7¢	$66.16	$71.06	+$4.9	53% 6690-5887 (12577)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 23.8¢	$13.86	$55.84	+$41.98	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
2B9S<$100	Yesavg 35.8¢	$24.18	$31.5	+$7.31	18% 3833-17376 (21209)

firegold

Yes

Invested

$4,397.07

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

59%

323-224 (547)

perfectnostalgia

Yes

Invested

$1,269.42

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$952.96

Record

55%

338-273 (611)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271

Yes

Invested

$1,131.61

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$870.98

Record

32%

4495-9638 (14133)

test456y78

Yes

Invested

$44.1

Value

$228.85

PnL

+$184.75

Record

36%

81-141 (222)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR

Invested

$95.84

Value

$120.35

PnL

+$27.3

Record

39%

175-269 (444)

0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438<$100

Yes

Invested

$68.68

Value

$88.95

PnL

+$20.27

Record

50%

357-357 (714)

lissartter<$100

Yes

Invested

$86.73

Value

$87.98

PnL

+$1.25

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Yes

Invested

$66.16

Value

$71.06

PnL

+$4.9

Record

53%

6690-5887 (12577)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.86

Value

$55.84

PnL

+$41.98

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

2B9S<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.18

Value

$31.5

PnL

+$7.31

Record

18%

3833-17376 (21209)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 94%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Late

721h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

15 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

90% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.1%

93.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.