Consensus PnL -$44K · win rate 50% (300–298, n=598) · was PM monthly #863 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-43.6K
Record
300W / 298L
Win Rate
50.0%
of 598 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1748
Source
PM monthly #863
Trades
15
Markets
618
Volume
$807.6K
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 2 on the consensus side (100%)- Nets vs. Pacers: 1H O/U 117.5Over $798 · now 1¢ · in at 48¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Nets vs. Pacers: 1H O/U 115.5Over $384 · now 1¢ · in at 54¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
Specialties
277 settled consensus markets · held side won 99% at an average entry of 54¢- NBA
+46 pts
side won 100% of 58 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +47%
- College Football
+46 pts
side won 99% of 67 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +44%
- NFL
+41 pts
side won 100% of 62 · avg entry 59¢
ROI +40%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 1%(won 100% of 2)
- 30–50¢: 29%(won 100% of 79)
- 50–70¢: 66%(won 98% of 183)
- 70¢ and up: 5%(won 100% of 13)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.