Consensus PnL $35K · win rate 38% (5–8, n=13) · was PM monthly #983 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$35.1K
Record
5W / 8L
Win Rate
38.0%
of 13 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2132
Source
PM monthly #983
Trades
32
Markets
17
Volume
$349.8K
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 2 on the consensus side (100%)- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No $394K · now 98¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (85% of 41)
- Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?No $227K · now 91¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (69% of 16)
Specialties
11 settled consensus markets · held side won 55% at an average entry of 49¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where winforretire's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 27%(won 0% of 3)
- 30–50¢: 36%(won 50% of 4)
- 50–70¢: 18%(won 100% of 2)
- 70¢ and up: 18%(won 100% of 2)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.