Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

35 of 41 top Polymarket traders hold No (85%) · No at 98¢ · $2.7M held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 85%

Total Value

$2.7M

Combined PnL

$119.5K

Smart Money Entry

94¢ → 98.2¢

+4% since entry · 33 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
$100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

35 of 41 top traders (85%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No35 traders

Total Value$2.7M

Total Shares2,739,361

Combined PnL+$121.2K

Yes6 traders

Total Value$349.82

Total Shares18,634

Combined PnL$-1.7K

No — 85%Yes — 15%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

35 traders

Top 2 hold 33%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

85% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 33% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 88% · 17

Aligned

sharpNo 95% · 21

Aligned

sniperNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 81% · 26

Aligned

Top 1000No 91% · 22

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AV Avamax	Noavg 95.4¢	$472.3K	$483.8K	+$11.6K	81% 421-101 (522)
winforretire	Noavg 93.9¢	$119.9K	$394.0K	+$25.6K	— 6-7 (13)
Anjun	Noavg 95.6¢	$377.3K	$387.4K	+$10.1K	55% 4925-3986 (8911)
0X 0xB9d89bef8c935082F6a86355bD9667402D92275A-1751857844680	Noavg 87.5¢	$342.0K	$383.3K	+$41.3K	— 16-3 (19)
0X 0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952	Noavg 95.4¢	$212.2K	$211.1K	+$6.0K	85% 605-108 (713)
allenzzz	Noavg 95.1¢	$180.4K	$185.6K	+$5.3K	78% 125-36 (161)
SH sheen07	Noavg 95.7¢	$93.4K	$133.1K	+$4.5K	— 2-0 (2)
ON onekey02	Noavg 93.2¢	$105.0K	$110.6K	+$5.6K	98% 415-10 (425)
CH chriszyy3	Noavg 95.7¢	$74.5K	$96.5K	+$3.2K	94% 242-16 (258)
elmcap2	Noavg 97¢	$66.8K	$65.6K	+$741.89	89% 1665-205 (1870)
FR freeman123	Noavg 96.3¢	$56.6K	$57.7K	+$1.1K	82% 553-125 (678)
AF afdafdafdafdafd	Noavg 96.3¢	$56.0K	$57.1K	+$1.1K	73% 196-73 (269)
JA janeju1029	Noavg 96¢	$33.9K	$34.7K	+$741.71	41% 12-17 (29)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 95.9¢	$23.6K	$31.6K	+$1.0K	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
PM pmcb	Noavg 87¢	$18.3K	$20.6K	+$2.3K	91% 49-5 (54)
DEGENKHAN	Noavg 92¢	$10.8K	$10.9K	+$50.64	66% 1107-565 (1672)
57 57284910	No	$4.4K	$4.4K	+$105.75	100% 23-0 (23)
0X 0x333e8f4fb0353ef31cf1a7d00789e1319381369b	Noavg 96.2¢	$4.2K	$4.3K	+$85.48	97% 140-4 (144)
debased	Noavg 93.2¢	$3.8K	$4.0K	+$203.42	58% 2317-1682 (3999)
esports095	Noavg 96.2¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$70.43	58% 651-467 (1118)
Slowroasted	Noavg 91¢	$2.3K	$2.5K	+$164.78	88% 1990-279 (2269)
WE weaklei	Noavg 64.5¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$5.9	94% 175-12 (187)
PoppingChairman	Noavg 90.8¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$122.01	71% 35-14 (49)
SA samemma	Noavg 97.5¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$4.06	80% 123-31 (154)
FA fastviking	Noavg 83¢	$602.87	$713.28	+$110.04	69% 33-15 (48)

Avamax

Invested

$472,276.87

Value

$483.8K

PnL

+$11.6K

Record

81%

421-101 (522)

winforretire

Invested

$119,894.42

Value

$394.0K

PnL

+$25.6K

Record

—

6-7 (13)

Anjun

Invested

$377,302.14

Value

$387.4K

PnL

+$10.1K

Record

55%

4925-3986 (8911)

0xB9d89bef8c935082F6a86355bD9667402D92275A-1751857844680

Invested

$341,995.51

Value

$383.3K

PnL

+$41.3K

Record

—

16-3 (19)

0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952

Invested

$212,216.62

Value

$211.1K

PnL

+$6.0K

Record

85%

605-108 (713)

allenzzz

Invested

$180,374.09

Value

$185.6K

PnL

+$5.3K

Record

78%

125-36 (161)

sheen07

Invested

$93,352.7

Value

$133.1K

PnL

+$4.5K

Record

—

2-0 (2)

onekey02

Invested

$104,968.34

Value

$110.6K

PnL

+$5.6K

Record

98%

415-10 (425)

chriszyy3

Invested

$74,541.92

Value

$96.5K

PnL

+$3.2K

Record

94%

242-16 (258)

elmcap2

Invested

$66,843.31

Value

$65.6K

PnL

+$741.89

Record

89%

1665-205 (1870)

freeman123

Invested

$56,636.71

Value

$57.7K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

82%

553-125 (678)

afdafdafdafdafd

Invested

$55,981.47

Value

$57.1K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

73%

196-73 (269)

janeju1029

Invested

$33,928.99

Value

$34.7K

PnL

+$741.71

Record

41%

12-17 (29)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$23,552.51

Value

$31.6K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

pmcb

Invested

$18,280.51

Value

$20.6K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

91%

49-5 (54)

DEGENKHAN

Invested

$10,840.81

Value

$10.9K

PnL

+$50.64

Record

66%

1107-565 (1672)

57284910

Invested

$4,418.99

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$105.75

Record

100%

23-0 (23)

0x333e8f4fb0353ef31cf1a7d00789e1319381369b

Invested

$4,217.04

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$85.48

Record

97%

140-4 (144)

debased

Invested

$3,842.73

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$203.42

Record

58%

2317-1682 (3999)

esports095

Invested

$3,474.38

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$70.43

Record

58%

651-467 (1118)

Slowroasted

Invested

$2,289.94

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$164.78

Record

88%

1990-279 (2269)

weaklei

Invested

$2,309.55

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$5.9

Record

94%

175-12 (187)

PoppingChairman

Invested

$1,573.62

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$122.01

Record

71%

35-14 (49)

samemma

Invested

$1,415.17

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$4.06

Record

80%

123-31 (154)

fastviking

Invested

$602.87

Value

$713.28

PnL

+$110.04

Record

69%

33-15 (48)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
$100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

35 of 41 top traders (85%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

35 traders

Top 2 hold 33%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

85% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 33% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 88% · 17

Aligned

sharpNo 95% · 21

Aligned

sniperNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 81% · 26

Aligned

Top 1000No 91% · 22

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.2%

98.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.