Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

11 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (69%) · No at 91¢ · $320K held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes10¢No90¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

No 69%

Total Value

$319.8K

Combined PnL

$21.1K

Smart Money Entry

78.8¢ → 90.5¢

+15% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 91%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 16 top traders (69%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$318.9K

Total Shares347,548

Combined PnL+$21.1K

Yes5 traders

Total Value$904.42

Total Shares10,049

Combined PnL+$2.61

No — 69%Yes — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

69% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
winforretire	Noavg 85.9¢	$215.2K	$226.6K	+$11.4K	— 6-7 (13)
balthazar	Noavg 50¢	$46.0K	$46.0K	+$0	61% 21345-13641 (34986)
Nadmi	Noavg 52.7¢	$11.2K	$18.1K	+$6.9K	47% 2036-2278 (4314)
esports095	Noavg 87.9¢	$10.4K	$10.7K	+$302.01	58% 651-467 (1118)
LA Lasting-Dessert	Noavg 86¢	$4.3K	$4.5K	+$225	89% 563-67 (630)
Gohst	Noavg 46.1¢	$1.5K	$2.9K	+$1.4K	49% 738-770 (1508)
BI BikesAreTheBikes	Noavg 72.9¢	$2.3K	$2.7K	+$395.95	39% 1781-2832 (4613)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758	Noavg 77.3¢	$2.3K	$2.7K	+$390.53	47% 85-95 (180)
0X 0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952	Noavg 90¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	+$14.54	85% 605-108 (713)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 86.8¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$80.27	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
FI firegoldCTR	Yesavg 11.3¢	$615.33	$650.13	+$34.8	59% 323-224 (547)
TBill1CTR	Yesavg 10¢	$199.99	$179.99	-$10	45% 154-188 (342)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.5¢	$88.69	$66.55	-$22.15	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
PaddyAlphaCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.7¢	$5.33	$5.65	+$0.31	59% 986-684 (1670)
AO aosdijfCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$2.46	$2.11	-$0.35	9% 48-465 (513)
mombil<$100	Noavg 84.8¢	$0.84	$0.91	+$0.07	55% 1191-966 (2157)

winforretire

Invested

$215,210

Value

$226.6K

PnL

+$11.4K

Record

—

6-7 (13)

balthazar

Invested

$46,000

Value

$46.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

61%

21345-13641 (34986)

Nadmi

Invested

$11,249.98

Value

$18.1K

PnL

+$6.9K

Record

47%

2036-2278 (4314)

esports095

Invested

$10,379.86

Value

$10.7K

PnL

+$302.01

Record

58%

651-467 (1118)

Lasting-Dessert

Invested

$4,300

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$225

Record

89%

563-67 (630)

Gohst

Invested

$1,499.99

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

49%

738-770 (1508)

BikesAreTheBikes

Invested

$2,323.67

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$395.95

Record

39%

1781-2832 (4613)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758

Invested

$2,291.76

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$390.53

Record

47%

85-95 (180)

0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952

Invested

$2,616.82

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$14.54

Record

85%

605-108 (713)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$1,911.94

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$80.27

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

firegoldCTR

Yes

Invested

$615.33

Value

$650.13

PnL

+$34.8

Record

59%

323-224 (547)

TBill1CTR

Yes

Invested

$199.99

Value

$179.99

PnL

-$10

Record

45%

154-188 (342)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$88.69

Value

$66.55

PnL

-$22.15

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

PaddyAlphaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.33

Value

$5.65

PnL

+$0.31

Record

59%

986-684 (1670)

aosdijfCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.46

Value

$2.11

PnL

-$0.35

Record

48-465 (513)

mombil<$100

Invested

$0.84

Value

$0.91

PnL

+$0.07

Record

55%

1191-966 (2157)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 91%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 16 top traders (69%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

69% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.5%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.