Consensus PnL -$4.5M · win rate 50% (3005–3001, n=6006) · was PM monthly #78 · no open consensus position
Consensus PnL
$-4.5M
Record
3005W / 3001L
Win Rate
50.0%
of 6006 settled
Batting Avg
59.1%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1729
Source
PM monthly #78
Trades
7,308
Markets
9,567
Volume
$162.9M
Specialties
2,465 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 54¢- College Football
+49 pts
side won 100% of 174 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +49%
- Other Sports
+48 pts
side won 100% of 276 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +50%
- NFL
+50 pts
side won 100% of 113 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +50%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 1%(won 100% of 28)
- 30–50¢: 40%(won 100% of 977)
- 50–70¢: 50%(won 100% of 1229)
- 70¢ and up: 9%(won 100% of 231)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.