Consensus PnL $190K · win rate 91% (1466–142, n=1608) · PM monthly #260 · holds 3 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$190.4K
Record
1466W / 142L
Win Rate
91.0%
of 1608 settled
Batting Avg
42.9%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#239
Source
PM monthly #260
Record (90 d)
1325/2315 · 57%
Trades
35,247
Markets
38,546
Volume
$21.1M
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Top consensus positions
3 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 3 on the consensus side (67%)- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 9:50PM-9:55PM ETDown $530 · now 100¢ · in at 59¢with the consensus (82% of 41)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 9:45PM-9:50PM ETDown $465 · now 100¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (68% of 40)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 9:55PM-10:00PM ETUp $165 · now 1¢ · in at 39¢against the consensus (Down)
Specialties
585 settled consensus markets · held side won 96% at an average entry of 67¢- Crypto
+29 pts
side won 96% of 585 · avg entry 67¢
ROI +25%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 3%(won 27% of 15)
- 30–50¢: 10%(won 83% of 58)
- 50–70¢: 41%(won 98% of 238)
- 70¢ and up: 47%(won 100% of 274)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.