Consensus PnL -$102K · win rate 33% (9–18, n=27) · hand-picked wallet · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-102.4K
Record
9W / 18L
Win Rate
33.0%
of 27 settled
Batting Avg
65.8%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#2174
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
3,417
Markets
84
Volume
$1.2M
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 2 on the consensus side (50%)- Will Russia invade another country in 2026?Yes $216 · now 3¢ · in at 12¢against the consensus (No)
- 2026 Balance of Power: OtherYes $13 · now 0¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (92% of 13)
Specialties
65 settled consensus markets · held side won 35% at an average entry of 38¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where xyz9999's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Weakest: Geopolitics — held side won 50% of 38 at an average 54¢ entry (−4 pts against the price), ROI +4%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 52%(won 0% of 34)
- 30–50¢: 9%(won 50% of 6)
- 50–70¢: 9%(won 50% of 6)
- 70¢ and up: 29%(won 89% of 19)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.