Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 13 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

2026 Balance of Power: Other

13 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $135 held · ends Nov 4

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$134.6

Combined PnL

$-24.8K

Smart Money Entry

7.6¢ → 0.1¢

-99% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 13 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes13 traders

Total Value$134.6

Total Shares269,200

Combined PnL$-24.8K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Late

4876h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

93 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 7.1¢	$12.8K	$89.72	$-12.7K	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
TI timetowanderCTR	Yes	$20.0K	$17.71	$-6.4K	40% 396-590 (986)
xyz9999CTR	Yesavg 0.6¢	$162.6	$13.22	-$148.87	34% 22-42 (64)
LI lissartterCTR	Yesavg 20¢	$1.8K	$4.55	$-1.8K	42% 5284-7235 (12519)
AV aviatoCTR<$100	Yes	$2.5	$2.5	$-1.1K	84% 2440-449 (2889)
ScottyNoooCTR	Yesavg 20¢	$780.56	$1.95	-$778.61	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR	Yesavg 20¢	$626	$1.57	-$624.44	47% 85-95 (180)
12 123987456CTR	Yesavg 20¢	$530.68	$1.33	-$529.35	45% 1906-2352 (4258)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR	Yesavg 20¢	$328.6	$0.82	-$327.78	38% 20-32 (52)
AL alex20011CTR	Yesavg 20¢	$213.37	$0.53	-$212.84	48% 3491-3823 (7314)
PO poposubCTR	Yes	$899	$0.45	-$85.56	45% 2069-2501 (4570)
0X 0x0E7Fa09bF44514634293b5ecC2420C50ABCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$60	$0.15	-$59.85	58% 108-79 (187)
flow-trader-at-optiverCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.7¢	$0	$0.1	+$0.1	39% 965-1508 (2473)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$12,756.32

Value

$89.72

PnL

$-12.7K

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

timetowanderCTR

Yes

Invested

$20,000

Value

$17.71

PnL

$-6.4K

Record

40%

396-590 (986)

xyz9999CTR

Yes

Invested

$162.6

Value

$13.22

PnL

-$148.87

Record

34%

22-42 (64)

lissartterCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,820.25

Value

$4.55

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

42%

5284-7235 (12519)

aviatoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.5

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

84%

2440-449 (2889)

ScottyNoooCTR

Yes

Invested

$780.56

Value

$1.95

PnL

-$778.61

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR

Yes

Invested

$626

Value

$1.57

PnL

-$624.44

Record

47%

85-95 (180)

123987456CTR

Yes

Invested

$530.68

Value

$1.33

PnL

-$529.35

Record

45%

1906-2352 (4258)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR

Yes

Invested

$328.6

Value

$0.82

PnL

-$327.78

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

alex20011CTR

Yes

Invested

$213.37

Value

$0.53

PnL

-$212.84

Record

48%

3491-3823 (7314)

poposubCTR

Yes

Invested

$899

Value

$0.45

PnL

-$85.56

Record

45%

2069-2501 (4570)

0x0E7Fa09bF44514634293b5ecC2420C50ABCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$60

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$59.85

Record

58%

108-79 (187)

flow-trader-at-optiverCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.1

PnL

+$0.1

Record

39%

965-1508 (2473)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 13 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Late

4876h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

93 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.