Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Republicans win Alaska, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Iowa, Maine, and Michigan?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.3¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$4.7K
$-5.5K
0.6¢ → 0.3¢
-51% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
49h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $1.6M | $4.7K | $-4.9K | 44% 577-748 (1325) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $27.76 | $10.8 | -$16.96 | 45% 2290-2797 (5087) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $8.81 | $3.38 | -$5.43 | 21% 813-3020 (3833) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $6.35 | $2.36 | -$43.94 | 36% 16787-30093 (46880) |
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $0.78 | $0.3 | -$497.67 | 36% 99-173 (272) |
Invested
$1,558,744.55
Value
$4.7K
PnL
$-4.9K
Record
44%
577-748 (1325)
Invested
$27.76
Value
$10.8
PnL
-$16.96
Record
45%
2290-2797 (5087)
Invested
$8.81
Value
$3.38
PnL
-$5.43
Record
21%
813-3020 (3833)
Invested
$6.35
Value
$2.36
PnL
-$43.94
Record
36%
16787-30093 (46880)
Invested
$0.78
Value
$0.3
PnL
-$497.67
Record
36%
99-173 (272)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.