Consensus PnL -$90K · win rate 39% (1507–2332, n=3839) · PM monthly #161 · holds 364 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-89.9K
Record
1507W / 2332L
Win Rate
39.0%
of 3839 settled
Batting Avg
66.5%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#2388
Source
PM monthly #161
Record (90 d)
213/722 · 30%
Trades
19,156
Markets
6,283
Volume
$2.8M
Top consensus positions
364 in listed consensus markets · 246 of 364 on the consensus side (68%)- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No $19K · now 89¢ · in at 49¢with the consensus (53% of 57)
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?No $17K · now 94¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (55% of 31)
- Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election by 0%-3%?No $5.6K · now 75¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (25% of 8)
- Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 0%-3%?No $5.3K · now 80¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (71% of 7)
- Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?Yes $4.0K · now 32¢ · in at 8¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $3.3K · now 28¢ · in at 34¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 3%-6%?No $3.1K · now 64¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (36% of 14)
- Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?No $3.0K · now 89¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (25% of 24)
Specialties
1,384 settled consensus markets · held side won 38% at an average entry of 39¢- Economy
+8 pts
side won 56% of 32 · avg entry 48¢
ROI −19%
- F1
+7 pts
side won 40% of 10 · avg entry 33¢
ROI −3%
Weakest: Soccer — held side won 42% of 358 at an average 45¢ entry (−3 pts against the price), ROI −1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 28%(won 3% of 385)
- 30–50¢: 54%(won 43% of 743)
- 50–70¢: 8%(won 52% of 105)
- 70¢ and up: 11%(won 95% of 151)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.