Consensus PnL $38K · win rate 42% (1419–1971, n=3390) · PM monthly #161 · holds 398 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$37.5K
Record
1419W / 1971L
Win Rate
42.0%
of 3390 settled
Batting Avg
66.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2310
Source
PM monthly #161
Record (90 d)
213/722 · 30%
Trades
19,156
Markets
5,920
Volume
$1.7M
Top consensus positions
398 in listed consensus markets · 258 of 398 on the consensus side (65%)- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No $19K · now 89¢ · in at 49¢with the consensus (53% of 57)
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?No $17K · now 94¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (55% of 31)
- Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election by 0%-3%?No $5.6K · now 75¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (25% of 8)
- Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?Yes $4.0K · now 32¢ · in at 8¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $3.3K · now 28¢ · in at 34¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?No $3.0K · now 89¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (25% of 24)
- Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes $2.6K · now 37¢ · in at 37¢with the consensus (75% of 63)
- Will the Republican Party win the MO-02 House seat?Yes $2.5K · now 63¢ · in at 60¢with the consensus (64% of 12)
Specialties
1,384 settled consensus markets · held side won 38% at an average entry of 39¢- Economy
+8 pts
side won 56% of 32 · avg entry 48¢
ROI −19%
- F1
+7 pts
side won 40% of 10 · avg entry 33¢
ROI −3%
Weakest: Soccer — held side won 42% of 358 at an average 45¢ entry (−3 pts against the price), ROI −1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 28%(won 3% of 385)
- 30–50¢: 54%(won 43% of 743)
- 50–70¢: 8%(won 52% of 105)
- 70¢ and up: 11%(won 95% of 151)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.