Consensus PnL $94K · win rate 28% (6078–15757, n=21835) · PM monthly #35 · holds 102 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$93.7K
Record
6078W / 15757L
Win Rate
28.0%
of 21835 settled
Batting Avg
76.6%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2211
Source
PM monthly #35 + pinned
Trades
582,565
Markets
44,078
Volume
$6.2M
Top consensus positions
102 in listed consensus markets · 49 of 102 on the consensus side (48%)- Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 SC-03 House election by 30%-35%?No $579 · now 69¢ · in at 71¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
- Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AL-04 House election by 55%-60%?No $479 · now 81¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (50% of 6)
- Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-04 House election by 15%-20%?No $467 · now 68¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?No $435 · now 73¢ · in at 75¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Yes $430 · now 12¢ · in at 23¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Dolly Parton be the #1 searched passing on Google in the US this year?Yes $414 · now 62¢ · in at 58¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the median home value in the US be between $403,000 and $407,000 on December 31?No $408 · now 63¢ · in at 61¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes $391 · now 72¢ · in at 61¢with the consensus (80% of 86)
Specialties
6,587 settled consensus markets · held side won 37% at an average entry of 29¢- Politics
+15 pts
side won 54% of 378 · avg entry 40¢
ROI +9%
- Mentions
+11 pts
side won 39% of 760 · avg entry 28¢
ROI +3%
- Entertainment
+11 pts
side won 46% of 811 · avg entry 35¢
ROI +3%
Weakest: MLB — held side won 2% of 51 at an average 6¢ entry (−4 pts against the price), ROI −4%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 66%(won 9% of 4318)
- 30–50¢: 8%(won 67% of 504)
- 50–70¢: 7%(won 89% of 448)
- 70¢ and up: 20%(won 99% of 1317)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.