Consensus PnL $10.6M · win rate 45% (526–640, n=1166) · PM monthly #1 · holds 46 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$10.6M
Record
526W / 640L
Win Rate
45.0%
of 1166 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1975
Source
PM monthly #1
Trades
882
Markets
1,317
Volume
$150.4M
Top consensus positions
46 in listed consensus markets · 37 of 46 on the consensus side (80%)- Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?No $402K · now 89¢ · in at 71¢with the consensus (60% of 15)
- Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $274K · now 73¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (77% of 78)
- Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?Yes $258K · now 65¢ · in at 3¢with the consensus (94% of 18)
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseNo $253K · now 78¢ · in at 71¢with the consensus (11% of 37)
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $202K · now 6¢ · in at 7¢against the consensus (Yes)
- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes $172K · now 72¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (80% of 86)
- Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?No $167K · now 96¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (56% of 9)
- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $85K · now 6¢ · in at 6¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
539 settled consensus markets · held side won 98% at an average entry of 53¢- NFL
+50 pts
side won 100% of 123 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +50%
- NBA
+49 pts
side won 100% of 93 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +48%
- Soccer
+41 pts
side won 96% of 277 · avg entry 56¢
ROI +38%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 10%(won 85% of 53)
- 30–50¢: 36%(won 98% of 192)
- 50–70¢: 35%(won 99% of 187)
- 70¢ and up: 20%(won 100% of 107)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.