Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 0.7¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
3
Yes 67%
$10.9K
$292.95
0.7¢ → 0.7¢
+4% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $9.6K | $10.0K | +$468.6 | 43% 570-741 (1311) |
 Tenebrus7 | Noavg 99.2¢ | $500 | $496.5 | +$0.5 | 73% 2953-1072 (4025) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $583.74 | $336.48 | -$176.15 | 53% 1174-1056 (2230) |
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.