Consensus PnL $128K · win rate 75% (2118–688, n=2806) · was PM monthly #841 · holds 113 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$127.9K
Record
2118W / 688L
Win Rate
75.0%
of 2806 settled
Batting Avg
66.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#561
Source
PM monthly #841 + pinned
Trades
162,793
Markets
4,726
Volume
$29.1M
Top consensus positions
113 in listed consensus markets · 97 of 113 on the consensus side (86%)- Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?No $9.3K · now 70¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (44% of 9)
- Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?No $5.4K · now 77¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (79% of 56)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 6?Yes $3.3K · now 88¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (75% of 8)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5?Yes $3.1K · now 91¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (64% of 11)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Yes $2.8K · now 55¢ · in at 62¢with the consensus (71% of 15)
- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No $2.1K · now 70¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (76% of 92)
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?No $2.0K · now 98¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (35% of 17)
- Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?No $1.9K · now 93¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (87% of 15)
Specialties
3,192 settled consensus markets · held side won 71% at an average entry of 70¢- Finance
+4 pts
side won 68% of 163 · avg entry 64¢
ROI +2%
- Culture
+4 pts
side won 63% of 75 · avg entry 59¢
ROI +2%
- Economy
+2 pts
side won 77% of 91 · avg entry 75¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: Elections — held side won 53% of 384 at an average 57¢ entry (−4 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 17%(won 7% of 541)
- 30–50¢: 6%(won 37% of 188)
- 50–70¢: 10%(won 58% of 325)
- 70¢ and up: 67%(won 92% of 2138)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.