Consensus PnL $207K · win rate 52% (904–844, n=1748) · was PM monthly #391 · holds 101 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$207.5K
Record
904W / 844L
Win Rate
52.0%
of 1748 settled
Batting Avg
78.9%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1617
Source
PM monthly #391 + pinned
Trades
33,124
Markets
2,474
Volume
$21.8M
Top consensus positions
101 in listed consensus markets · 72 of 101 on the consensus side (71%)- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No $8.1K · now 46¢ · in at 30¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes $8.1K · now 54¢ · in at 40¢with the consensus (76% of 21)
- Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?No $7.1K · now 59¢ · in at 72¢with the consensus (57% of 15)
- No one announced as next James Bond?Yes $5.4K · now 17¢ · in at 22¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Republican House incumbents not win in between four and six nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?Yes $2.7K · now 89¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
- Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $2.3K · now 2¢ · in at 2¢with the consensus (100% of 15)
- Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?Yes $2.3K · now 11¢ · in at 8¢against the consensus (No)
- Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?No $2.2K · now 93¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
Specialties
1,671 settled consensus markets · held side won 53% at an average entry of 48¢- Finance
+14 pts
side won 69% of 55 · avg entry 55¢
ROI +5%
- Elections
+3 pts
side won 48% of 873 · avg entry 45¢
ROI +2%
- Economy
+7 pts
side won 56% of 100 · avg entry 49¢
ROI +11%
Weakest: Crypto — held side won 38% of 16 at an average 63¢ entry (−26 pts against the price), ROI −11%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 42%(won 14% of 706)
- 30–50¢: 10%(won 45% of 162)
- 50–70¢: 11%(won 69% of 177)
- 70¢ and up: 37%(won 94% of 626)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.