Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (67%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will CA Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia end in a draw?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 34¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$1.5K
-$44.86
35.4¢ → 33.5¢
-5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 34%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
-3 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
12h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 35.6¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | -$40.84 | 51% 27227-25781 (53008) |
GC GC-PCTR | Yesavg 34.3¢ | $103.64 | $104.21 | +$0.57 | 64% 10179-5769 (15948) |
NM NM-PCTR<$100 | Yesavg 34.2¢ | $98.81 | $96.74 | -$2.07 | 64% 10182-5720 (15902) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $36.62 | $34.96 | -$2.15 | 50% 26409-26025 (52434) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 34.3¢ | $15.46 | $15.08 | -$0.38 | 58% 47503-34297 (81800) |
Invested
$1,336.43
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$40.84
Record
51%
27227-25781 (53008)
Invested
$103.64
Value
$104.21
PnL
+$0.57
Record
64%
10179-5769 (15948)
Invested
$98.81
Value
$96.74
PnL
-$2.07
Record
64%
10182-5720 (15902)
Invested
$36.62
Value
$34.96
PnL
-$2.15
Record
50%
26409-26025 (52434)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$15.46
Value
$15.08
PnL
-$0.38
Record
58%
47503-34297 (81800)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
33.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.