BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Taylor Fritz vs Cameron Norrie
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Taylor Fritz (17%) · Taylor Fritz at 75¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 18
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Neutral
Taylor Fritz
6
Taylor Fritz 17%
$6.0K
$57.81
Research grade
NeutralTaylor Fritz at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Taylor Fritzavg 75¢ | $4.8K | $4.8K | -$32.3 | 54% 1625-1379 (3004) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Cameron Norrieavg 25¢ | $1.0K | $648 | +$53.5 | 49% 231-239 (470) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Cameron Norrieavg 25¢ | $227.25 | $245.43 | +$18.18 | 50% 1408-1410 (2818) |
NM NM-PCTR | Cameron Norrieavg 25¢ | $112.87 | $121.9 | +$9.03 | 60% 3442-2335 (5777) |
GC GC-PCTR | Cameron Norrieavg 25¢ | $110.19 | $119 | +$8.82 | 16% 66-347 (413) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Cameron Norrieavg 25¢ | $7.25 | $7.83 | +$0.58 | 48% 421-450 (871) |
Invested
$4,844.49
Value
$4.8K
PnL
-$32.3
Record
54%
1625-1379 (3004)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$1,007
Value
$648
PnL
+$53.5
Record
49%
231-239 (470)
Invested
$227.25
Value
$245.43
PnL
+$18.18
Record
50%
1408-1410 (2818)
Invested
$112.87
Value
$121.9
PnL
+$9.03
Record
60%
3442-2335 (5777)
Invested
$110.19
Value
$119
PnL
+$8.82
Record
16%
66-347 (413)
Invested
$7.25
Value
$7.83
PnL
+$0.58
Record
48%
421-450 (871)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.