Consensus PnL $572K · win rate 45% (497–603, n=1100) · PM monthly #33 · holds 10 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$571.6K
Record
497W / 603L
Win Rate
45.0%
of 1100 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1976
Source
PM monthly #33
Trades
141
Markets
2,322
Volume
$11.5M
Top consensus positions
10 in listed consensus markets · 7 of 10 on the consensus side (70%)- Rostock Seawolves vs. FC Bayern MunchenFC Bayern Munchen $2.4K · now 79¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (33% of 8)
- Villa Maria: Ian Luca Vertberger vs Denis KlokDenis Klok $1.4K · now 7¢ · in at 41¢with the consensus (70% of 13)
- Courmayeur: Noma Noha Akugue vs Alina CharaevaAlina Charaeva $741 · now 74¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (80% of 11)
- SK Brann vs. Molde FK: O/U 4.5Under $623 · now 0¢ · in at 32¢with the consensus (80% of 11)
- Set 1 Winner: Alice Tubello vs Julia GrabherJulia Grabher $489 · now 53¢ · in at 53¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FC Köln: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under $138 · now 100¢ · in at 51¢with the consensus (82% of 11)
- W75 Poitiers: Veronika Podrez vs Oceane DodinOceane Dodin $86 · now 11¢ · in at 17¢against the consensus (Veronika Podrez)
- Rolex Paris Masters, Qualification: Nuno Borges vs Alex MolcanNuno Borges $18 · now 0¢ · in at 27¢against the consensus (Alex Molcan)
Specialties
422 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 50¢- NBA
+52 pts
side won 100% of 308 · avg entry 48¢
ROI +50%
- Soccer
+48 pts
side won 100% of 44 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +45%
- NHL
+42 pts
side won 100% of 30 · avg entry 58¢
ROI +43%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 1%(won 100% of 6)
- 30–50¢: 55%(won 100% of 233)
- 50–70¢: 38%(won 100% of 159)
- 70¢ and up: 6%(won 100% of 24)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.