Brisbane 3: James McCabe vs Jan Kumstat
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Jan Kumstat (60%) · Jan Kumstat at 66¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
Jan Kumstat
5
Jan Kumstat 60%
$1.7K
$26.81
64.5¢ → 65.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralJan Kumstat at 66%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Jan Kumstat. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | James McCabeavg 33.8¢ | $810.91 | $595.01 | +$14.78 | 50% 262-258 (520) |
FL Flaznorp | Jan Kumstatavg 65¢ | $575.51 | $579.94 | +$4.43 | 50% 1433-1435 (2868) |
 0xheavy888 | Jan Kumstatavg 64¢ | $477.56 | $485.03 | +$7.46 | 56% 119-94 (213) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Jan Kumstatavg 64.7¢ | $31.71 | $31.85 | +$0.14 | 49% 440-464 (904) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | James McCabeavg 34¢ | $24.51 | $24.51 | +$0 | 26% 234-653 (887) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$810.91
Value
$595.01
PnL
+$14.78
Record
50%
262-258 (520)
Invested
$575.51
Value
$579.94
PnL
+$4.43
Record
50%
1433-1435 (2868)
0xheavy888Invested
$477.56
Value
$485.03
PnL
+$7.46
Record
56%
119-94 (213)
Invested
$31.71
Value
$31.85
PnL
+$0.14
Record
49%
440-464 (904)
Invested
$24.51
Value
$24.51
PnL
+$0
Record
26%
234-653 (887)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.