Consensus PnL $380K · win rate 57% (4374–3282, n=7656) · PM monthly #201 · holds 79 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$380.4K
Record
4374W / 3282L
Win Rate
57.0%
of 7656 settled
Batting Avg
58.6%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1320
Source
PM monthly #201 + pinned
Trades
123,901
Markets
13,419
Volume
$41.0M
Top consensus positions
79 in listed consensus markets · 58 of 79 on the consensus side (73%)- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo $40K · now 96¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (72% of 72)
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $27K · now 95¢ · in at 62¢with the consensus (86% of 158)
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes $19K · now 97¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (74% of 35)
- Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Yes $18K · now 71¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (86% of 51)
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $17K · now 84¢ · in at 81¢with the consensus (83% of 132)
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $16K · now 65¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (67% of 133)
- Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?No $15K · now 98¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (18% of 17)
- Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes $14K · now 71¢ · in at 62¢with the consensus (82% of 108)
Specialties
6,215 settled consensus markets · held side won 56% at an average entry of 56¢- Esports
+4 pts
side won 51% of 1372 · avg entry 47¢
ROI +4%
- Economy
+16 pts
side won 81% of 16 · avg entry 65¢
ROI +4%
- Politics
+9 pts
side won 92% of 25 · avg entry 83¢
ROI +2%
Weakest: Soccer — held side won 61% of 2030 at an average 63¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI −20%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 9%(won 8% of 590)
- 30–50¢: 26%(won 42% of 1636)
- 50–70¢: 38%(won 61% of 2373)
- 70¢ and up: 26%(won 82% of 1616)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.