Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Rinderknech vs Francisco Cerundolo

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Francisco Cerundolo (67%) · Francisco Cerundolo at 65¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 9

Arthur Rinderknech36¢Francisco Cerundolo64¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Francisco Cerundolo

Consensus Traders

Francisco Cerundolo 67%

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

-$43.84

Smart Money Entry

66.7¢ → 64.5¢

-3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralFrancisco Cerundolo at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Francisco Cerundolo

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Arthur Rinderknech36%

Francisco Cerundolo65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Francisco Cerundolo4 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares4,467

Combined PnL-$99.89

Arthur Rinderknech2 traders

Total Value$632.76

Total Shares1,702

Combined PnL+$56.05

Francisco Cerundolo — 67%Arthur Rinderknech — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Francisco Cerundolo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleArthur Rinderknech 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrFrancisco Cerundolo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedFrancisco Cerundolo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Francisco Cerundolo 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Francisco Cerundoloavg 67¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$75	58% 43600-31711 (75311)
38 38791873984189	Francisco Cerundoloavg 66.3¢	$637.15	$619.95	-$17.21	47% 13002-14566 (27568)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR	Arthur Rinderknechavg 32¢	$509.92	$560.88	+$50.96	50% 495-491 (986)
FL Flaznorp	Francisco Cerundoloavg 66¢	$327.17	$319.73	-$7.44	51% 17613-16616 (34229)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Arthur Rinderknechavg 33¢	$66.79	$71.88	+$5.09	61% 13846-8751 (22597)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Francisco Cerundoloavg 67¢	$6.69	$6.39	-$0.25	52% 7639-6913 (14552)

VeryLucky888

Francisco Cerundolo

Invested

$2,010

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$75

Record

58%

43600-31711 (75311)

38791873984189

Francisco Cerundolo

Invested

$637.15

Value

$619.95

PnL

-$17.21

Record

47%

13002-14566 (27568)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR

Arthur Rinderknech

Invested

$509.92

Value

$560.88

PnL

+$50.96

Record

50%

495-491 (986)

Flaznorp

Francisco Cerundolo

Invested

$327.17

Value

$319.73

PnL

-$7.44

Record

51%

17613-16616 (34229)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Arthur Rinderknech

Invested

$66.79

Value

$71.88

PnL

+$5.09

Record

61%

13846-8751 (22597)

ameisgoat11<$100

Francisco Cerundolo

Invested

$6.69

Value

$6.39

PnL

-$0.25

Record

52%

7639-6913 (14552)

Research grade

NeutralFrancisco Cerundolo at 65%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Francisco Cerundolo

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Francisco Cerundolo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleArthur Rinderknech 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrFrancisco Cerundolo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedFrancisco Cerundolo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Francisco Cerundolo 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Francisco Cerundolo wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.