Consensus PnL $78K · win rate 53% (5413–4774, n=10187) · PM monthly #943 · holds 50 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$77.9K
Record
5413W / 4774L
Win Rate
53.0%
of 10187 settled
Batting Avg
64.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1544
Source
PM monthly #943
Trades
20,837
Markets
14,339
Volume
$6.9M
Top consensus positions
50 in listed consensus markets · 27 of 50 on the consensus side (54%)- Game Handicap: TY (-1.5) vs Team Spirit (+1.5)Team Spirit $199 · now 76¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (90% of 10)
- Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs BESTIA (BO3) - FiReSPORTS Last Chance Playoffs100 Thieves $119 · now 87¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (64% of 11)
- SK Brann vs. Molde FK: O/U 5.5Under $10 · now 76¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (71% of 9)
- Will SS Lazio win on 2026-11-01?No $9 · now 57¢ · in at 32¢with the consensus (61% of 48)
- Swiss Indoors Basel: Jiri Lehecka vs Valentin VacherotJiri Lehecka $8 · now 88¢ · in at 63¢with the consensus (65% of 27)
- Brest: Moise Kouame vs Martin DammMoise Kouame $7 · now 83¢ · in at 47¢with the consensus (63% of 12)
- Frosinone Calcio vs. Torino FC: O/U 2.5Under $7 · now 67¢ · in at 30¢against the consensus (Over)
- Celtics vs. MagicCeltics $7 · now 71¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (43% of 25)
Specialties
249 settled consensus markets · held side won 56% at an average entry of 54¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where ameisgoat11's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 19%(won 6% of 47)
- 30–50¢: 23%(won 33% of 58)
- 50–70¢: 26%(won 67% of 64)
- 70¢ and up: 32%(won 93% of 80)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.