Consensus PnL $995K · win rate 58% (5626–4144, n=9770) · PM monthly #251 · holds 27 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$995.3K
Record
5626W / 4144L
Win Rate
58.0%
of 9770 settled
Batting Avg
56.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1270
Source
PM monthly #251
Trades
29,076
Markets
24,038
Volume
$29.4M
Top consensus positions
27 in listed consensus markets · 15 of 27 on the consensus side (56%)- Will SS Lazio win on 2026-11-01?No $2.2K · now 43¢ · in at 60¢with the consensus (61% of 43)
- Frosinone Calcio vs. Torino FC: O/U 2.5Over $1.1K · now 43¢ · in at 39¢with the consensus (47% of 17)
- Will Trabzonspor win on 2026-11-01?Yes $854 · now 99¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (58% of 19)
- Will Getafe CF win on 2026-11-01?Yes $613 · now 77¢ · in at 18¢against the consensus (No)
- Getafe CF vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 2.5Under $577 · now 1¢ · in at 62¢against the consensus (Over)
- Trabzonspor vs. Gaziantep FK: O/U 2.5Over $326 · now 42¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (55% of 13)
- Will Rams Başakşehir FK vs. Samsunspor end in a draw?Yes $306 · now 1¢ · in at 4¢against the consensus (No)
- SS Lazio vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 2.5Over $300 · now 85¢ · in at 55¢with the consensus (52% of 32)
Specialties
6,069 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 63¢- Tennis
+62 pts
side won 99% of 1355 · avg entry 37¢
ROI +65%
- NBA
+49 pts
side won 100% of 319 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +42%
- MLB
+53 pts
side won 100% of 61 · avg entry 47¢
ROI +56%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 7%(won 98% of 413)
- 30–50¢: 29%(won 100% of 1750)
- 50–70¢: 18%(won 100% of 1122)
- 70¢ and up: 46%(won 100% of 2784)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.