Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (99%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 11?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 0.5¢ · $41 held · ended Sep 11
⚠️
Avoid
No
3
No 100%
$40.84
$-5.7K
13.9¢ → 0.5¢
-96% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 99%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AO aosdijfCTR | Noavg 10.7¢ | $791.76 | $40.84 | -$791.74 | 9% 48-480 (528) |
PI pilimiliCTR | Noavg 18¢ | $4.4K | — | $-4.4K | 62% 151-91 (242) |
SS ssddssdCTR | Noavg 6.1¢ | $585.93 | — | -$585.93 | 52% 341-320 (661) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.