Consensus PnL -$187K · win rate 63% (158–91, n=249) · PM monthly #557 · holds 19 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-186.7K
Record
158W / 91L
Win Rate
63.0%
of 249 settled
Batting Avg
25.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1027
Source
PM monthly #557
Trades
250
Markets
288
Volume
$8.0M
Top consensus positions
19 in listed consensus markets · 11 of 19 on the consensus side (58%)- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?No $126K · now 87¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (52% of 26)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?No $26K · now 64¢ · in at 63¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?Yes $25K · now 17¢ · in at 10¢against the consensus (No)
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?No $21K · now 91¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (67% of 18)
- Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?No $20K · now 99¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (83% of 48)
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?No $14K · now 63¢ · in at 62¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Yes $11K · now 99¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (94% of 47)
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?No $9.6K · now 96¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (86% of 14)
Specialties
183 settled consensus markets · held side won 90% at an average entry of 80¢- Soccer
+14 pts
side won 78% of 46 · avg entry 65¢
ROI +3%
- Geopolitics
+4 pts
side won 96% of 67 · avg entry 91¢
ROI +1%
- Crypto
+7 pts
side won 88% of 34 · avg entry 81¢
ROI +4%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 4%(won 14% of 7)
- 30–50¢: 8%(won 71% of 14)
- 50–70¢: 18%(won 85% of 33)
- 70¢ and up: 70%(won 98% of 129)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.