Consensus PnL $15K · win rate 53% (339–298, n=637) · PM monthly #595 · holds 15 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$14.9K
Record
339W / 298L
Win Rate
53.0%
of 637 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1560
Source
PM monthly #595
Trades
139
Markets
682
Volume
$770.0K
Top consensus positions
15 in listed consensus markets · 8 of 15 on the consensus side (53%)- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on November 1?No $8.9K · now 100¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (82% of 11)
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on November 1?No $2.8K · now 100¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (100% of 10)
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on November 2?No $2.5K · now 91¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (57% of 7)
- Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $929 · now 94¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (40% of 36)
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes $805 · now 35¢ · in at 47¢against the consensus (No)
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in November?Yes $627 · now 70¢ · in at 46¢with the consensus (67% of 6)
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in November?Yes $542 · now 13¢ · in at 8¢against the consensus (No)
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No $528 · now 89¢ · in at 55¢with the consensus (57% of 55)
Specialties
350 settled consensus markets · held side won 96% at an average entry of 68¢- Soccer
+35 pts
side won 90% of 138 · avg entry 55¢
ROI +28%
- Crypto
+23 pts
side won 100% of 194 · avg entry 77¢
ROI +26%
- Finance
+35 pts
side won 100% of 16 · avg entry 65¢
ROI +38%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 7%(won 70% of 23)
- 30–50¢: 9%(won 91% of 32)
- 50–70¢: 30%(won 98% of 106)
- 70¢ and up: 54%(won 99% of 189)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.