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19
Consensus PnL $6.1K · win rate 10% (40–358, n=398) · was PM monthly #951 · holds 18 consensus positions
0x1963eaba...22179bfdPolymarket
🔄Contrarian🎰Degen
Consensus PnL
$6.1K
Record
40W / 358L
Win Rate
10.0%
of 398 settled
Batting Avg
75.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2253
Source
PM monthly #951
Trades
57
Markets
434
Volume
$107.8K
Top consensus positions
18 in listed consensus markets · 6 of 18 on the consensus side (33%)- Will Tom Cotton win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $1.7K · now 0¢ · in at 0¢with the consensus (92% of 12)
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Yes $747 · now 8¢ · in at 7¢against the consensus (No)
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?Yes $212 · now 3¢ · in at 5¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $197 · now 1¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (100% of 14)
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 October 26-November 1?Yes $163 · now 1¢ · in at 4¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $129 · now 2¢ · in at 3¢with the consensus (100% of 24)
- Iran nuclear test before 2027?Yes $114 · now 5¢ · in at 5¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?Yes $50 · now 16¢ · in at 8¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
43 settled consensus markets · held side won 79% at an average entry of 16¢- Crypto
+62 pts
side won 76% of 37 · avg entry 14¢
ROI +25%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 86%(won 76% of 37)
- 30–50¢: 9%(won 100% of 4)
- 50–70¢: 2%(won 100% of 1)
- 70¢ and up: 2%(won 100% of 1)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.