Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (72%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Bryce Young have 3,324.5+ passing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?

2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 28¢ · $5 held · ends Jan 27, 2027

Yes72¢No28¢Ends Wed, Jan 27, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$5.48

Combined PnL

$18.29

Research grade

AvoidNo at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 72%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes72%

No28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$3.95

Total Shares14

Combined PnL+$17.01

Yes1 trader

Total Value$1.52

Total Shares2

Combined PnL+$1.29

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HI hithitfarCTR<$100	Noavg 16.8¢	$22.16	$2.55	+$16.66	59% 825-584 (1409)
ND ndb1<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$0.23	$1.52	+$1.29	64% 1050-593 (1643)
2B9SCTR<$100	Noavg 21¢	$1.05	$1.4	+$0.35	17% 4496-22007 (26503)

hithitfarCTR<$100

Invested

$22.16

Value

$2.55

PnL

+$16.66

Record

59%

825-584 (1409)

ndb1<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.23

Value

$1.52

PnL

+$1.29

Record

64%

1050-593 (1643)

2B9SCTR<$100

Invested

$1.05

Value

$1.4

PnL

+$0.35

Record

17%

4496-22007 (26503)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 72%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance30.0%

28.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$233.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

333.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.