Consensus PnL $4.6K · win rate 60% (551–372, n=923) · PM monthly #880 · holds 20 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$4.6K
Record
551W / 372L
Win Rate
60.0%
of 923 settled
Batting Avg
28.6%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1153
Source
PM monthly #880
Trades
93
Markets
1,282
Volume
$67.3K
Top consensus positions
20 in listed consensus markets · 11 of 20 on the consensus side (55%)- StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?No $677 · now 97¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?No $324 · now 85¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Papertrade FDV above $250M one day after launch?No $305 · now 80¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?No $216 · now 92¢ · in at 83¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026?No $182 · now 98¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (100% of 6)
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495?No $112 · now 88¢ · in at 74¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?Yes $79 · now 13¢ · in at 43¢with the consensus (29% of 7)
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510?No $65 · now 89¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (57% of 7)
Specialties
444 settled consensus markets · held side won 64% at an average entry of 52¢- Finance
+20 pts
side won 72% of 76 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +4%
- Tech
+12 pts
side won 60% of 58 · avg entry 49¢
ROI +1%
- Geopolitics
+6 pts
side won 58% of 115 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +3%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 29%(won 24% of 127)
- 30–50¢: 17%(won 58% of 76)
- 50–70¢: 20%(won 75% of 87)
- 70¢ and up: 35%(won 94% of 154)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.