Consensus PnL $97K · win rate 10% (1541–13622, n=15163) · hand-picked wallet · holds 114 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$97.2K
Record
1541W / 13622L
Win Rate
10.0%
of 15163 settled
Batting Avg
63.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2252
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
170,614
Markets
19,890
Volume
$749.2K
Top consensus positions
114 in listed consensus markets · 72 of 114 on the consensus side (63%)- Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $6.9K · now 38¢with the consensus (78% of 39)
- Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $5.0K · now 21¢with the consensus (94% of 34)
- Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 70% or more?No $612 · now 97¢ · in at 21¢with the consensus (50% of 6)
- Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?No $570 · now 96¢ · in at 17¢with the consensus (66% of 33)
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No $480 · now 96¢ · in at 16¢with the consensus (88% of 80)
- Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026?No $450 · now 90¢ · in at 8¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026?No $392 · now 98¢ · in at 22¢with the consensus (88% of 16)
- Papertrade FDV above $75M one day after launch?No $333 · now 62¢ · in at 11¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
12,237 settled consensus markets · held side won 4% at an average entry of 4¢- NBA
+3 pts
side won 4% of 265 · avg entry 2¢
ROI +1%
- Esports
+3 pts
side won 7% of 203 · avg entry 4¢
ROI +1%
- NHL
+3 pts
side won 4% of 147 · avg entry 1¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: Tech — held side won 2% of 648 at an average 2¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI −1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 99%(won 3% of 12064)
- 30–50¢: 1%(won 52% of 67)
- 50–70¢: 0%(won 77% of 22)
- 70¢ and up: 1%(won 77% of 84)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.