Charleston Cougars vs. Temple Owls
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Charleston Cougars (100%) · Charleston Cougars at 54¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Charleston Cougars
3
Charleston Cougars 100%
1 arb excluded
$1.3K
-$129.49
52¢ → 53.5¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidCharleston Cougars at 54%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Charleston Cougarsavg 51.9¢ | $751.29 | $679.67 | -$71.62 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
FL Flaznorp | Charleston Cougarsavg 52¢ | $394.68 | $352.94 | -$41.75 | 51% 1822-1784 (3606) |
SN SnakeBallARB<$100 | Temple Owlsavg 47¢ | $181.75 | $179.93 | -$1.83 | 45% 262-316 (578) |
| └ Temple Owls leg | Temple Owlsavg 47¢ | $106.04 | $104.91 | -$1.13 | |
| └ Charleston Cougars leg | Charleston Cougarsavg 54¢ | $75.71 | $75.01 | -$0.7 | |
38 38791873984189 | Charleston Cougarsavg 52.4¢ | $144 | $127.88 | -$16.13 | 48% 1310-1415 (2725) |
Invested
$751.29
Value
$679.67
PnL
-$71.62
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
Invested
$394.68
Value
$352.94
PnL
-$41.75
Record
51%
1822-1784 (3606)
Invested
$181.75
Value
$179.93
PnL
-$1.83
Record
45%
262-316 (578)
Both legs:
Invested
$144
Value
$127.88
PnL
-$16.13
Record
48%
1310-1415 (2725)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.