Spread: East Carolina Pirates (-10.5)
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold East Carolina Pirates (50%) · East Carolina Pirates at 54¢ · $858 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
East Carolina Pirates
4
East Carolina Pirates 50%
1 arb excluded
$858.18
-$0.68
53.5¢ → 53.5¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidEast Carolina Pirates at 54%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on East Carolina Pirates. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | East Carolina Piratesavg 53.5¢ | $649.06 | $648.8 | -$0.26 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | East Carolina Piratesavg 55.8¢ | $185.28 | $180.12 | -$5.15 | 48% 1381-1515 (2896) |
| └ East Carolina Pirates leg | East Carolina Piratesavg 55.8¢ | $110.15 | $105.7 | -$4.45 | |
| └ North Carolina A&T Aggies leg | North Carolina A&T Aggiesavg 46.9¢ | $75.13 | $74.43 | -$0.7 | |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | North Carolina A&T Aggiesavg 45.9¢ | $18.81 | $19.46 | +$0.65 | 51% 1853-1805 (3658) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | East Carolina Piratesavg 55.9¢ | $19.01 | $7.49 | -$0.92 | 48% 673-715 (1388) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | North Carolina A&T Aggiesavg 49¢ | $2.45 | $2.3 | -$0.15 | 32% 297-622 (919) |
Invested
$649.06
Value
$648.8
PnL
-$0.26
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
Invested
$185.28
Value
$180.12
PnL
-$5.15
Record
48%
1381-1515 (2896)
Both legs:
Invested
$18.81
Value
$19.46
PnL
+$0.65
Record
51%
1853-1805 (3658)
Invested
$19.01
Value
$7.49
PnL
-$0.92
Record
48%
673-715 (1388)
Invested
$2.45
Value
$2.3
PnL
-$0.15
Record
32%
297-622 (919)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.