Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (88%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Exact Score: CD Pamplona 0 - 1 SD Eibar?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 13¢ · $354 held · ended Nov 3

Yes13¢No87¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$354.22

Combined PnL

$220.08

Smart Money Entry

5.2¢ → 12.5¢

+139% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 13%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 88%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes13%

No88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$319.22

Total Shares2,554

Combined PnL+$185.48

No1 trader

Total Value$35

Total Shares40

Combined PnL+$34.6

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BL BlackMamba08CTR	Yesavg 1¢	$9.37	$117.17	+$107.8	47% 116-132 (248)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 13¢	$104	$100	-$4	52% 47498-44700 (92198)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$19.36	$89.55	+$70.18	21% 572-2206 (2778)
AS asdkjhsad<$100	Noavg 1¢	$0.4	$35	+$34.6	—
SilentSharkCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$1	$12.5	+$11.5	58% 196-140 (336)

BlackMamba08CTR

Yes

Invested

$9.37

Value

$117.17

PnL

+$107.8

Record

47%

116-132 (248)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$104

Value

$100

PnL

-$4

Record

52%

47498-44700 (92198)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.36

Value

$89.55

PnL

+$70.18

Record

21%

572-2206 (2778)

asdkjhsad<$100

Invested

$0.4

Value

$35

PnL

+$34.6

Record

—

SilentSharkCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$12.5

PnL

+$11.5

Record

58%

196-140 (336)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 13%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 88%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance14.1%

12.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$610.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

710.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.