Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (87%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Exact Score: CD Pamplona 1 - 0 SD Eibar?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 13¢ · $380 held · ends Nov 10
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$379.8
$282.6
Research grade
AvoidYes at 13%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 87%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Late
63h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BL BlackMamba08CTR | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.96 | $164.73 | +$163.77 | 47% 120-133 (253) |
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR | Yesavg 1.6¢ | $12.69 | $134.38 | +$113.14 | 21% 612-2279 (2891) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 97.9¢ | $73.43 | $62.18 | -$11.17 | 46% 2665-3073 (5738) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.2¢ | $1.65 | $12.83 | +$11.18 | 52% 49211-46180 (95391) |
AS asdkjhsad<$100 | Noavg 0.1¢ | $0.01 | $5.7 | +$5.69 | — 0-4 (4) |
Invested
$0.96
Value
$164.73
PnL
+$163.77
Record
47%
120-133 (253)
Invested
$12.69
Value
$134.38
PnL
+$113.14
Record
21%
612-2279 (2891)
Invested
$73.43
Value
$62.18
PnL
-$11.17
Record
46%
2665-3073 (5738)
Invested
$1.65
Value
$12.83
PnL
+$11.18
Record
52%
49211-46180 (95391)
Invested
$0.01
Value
$5.7
PnL
+$5.69
Record
—
0-4 (4)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
12.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.