Consensus PnL $39K · win rate 53% (260–228, n=488) · PM monthly #493 · holds 155 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$39.1K
Record
260W / 228L
Win Rate
53.0%
of 488 settled
Batting Avg
66.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1647
Source
PM monthly #493
Record (90 d)
205/230 · 89%
Trades
69
Markets
757
Volume
$488.2K
Top consensus positions
155 in listed consensus markets · 102 of 155 on the consensus side (66%)- Atalanta BC vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 3.5Under $22K · now 57¢ · in at 58¢with the consensus (76% of 21)
- Spread: Seahawks (-10.5)Bears $6.1K · now 76¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (89% of 9)
- Cali: Selena Janicijevic vs Solana SierraSelena Janicijevic $3.4K · now 35¢ · in at 33¢against the consensus (Solana Sierra)
- Newcastle United FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 2.5Under $3.2K · now 47¢ · in at 44¢against the consensus (Over)
- Villa Maria: Bruno Fernandez vs Nicolas KickerNicolas Kicker $3.1K · now 100¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (57% of 22)
- Kongsvinger IL Toppfotball vs. Stabaek IF: O/U 5.5Under $2.8K · now 85¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (56% of 9)
- Spread: Stabaek IF (-1.5)Kongsvinger IL Toppfotball $2.6K · now 93¢ · in at 61¢with the consensus (57% of 7)
- Cali: Laura Samson vs Yuliana LizarazoLaura Samson $2.4K · now 96¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (72% of 18)
Specialties
158 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 64¢- Soccer
+32 pts
side won 100% of 112 · avg entry 68¢
ROI +39%
- Tennis
+27 pts
side won 100% of 13 · avg entry 73¢
ROI +26%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 11%(won 100% of 18)
- 30–50¢: 22%(won 100% of 34)
- 50–70¢: 20%(won 100% of 32)
- 70¢ and up: 47%(won 100% of 74)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.