Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-11-05?
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (17%) · Yes at 86¢ · $395 held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 17%
$395.26
$2.4
Research grade
NeutralYes at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Yesavg 83.8¢ | $768.85 | $361.54 | +$1.86 | 51% 25532-24237 (49769) |
GC GC-PCTR<$100 | Noavg 14¢ | $15.96 | $16.53 | +$0.57 | 64% 9866-5558 (15424) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Noavg 15¢ | $13.05 | $13.05 | -$0 | 48% 60671-65334 (126005) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Noavg 16¢ | $11.67 | $1.81 | -$0.06 | 49% 14639-15352 (29991) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Noavg 15¢ | $10 | $1.55 | +$0.05 | 50% 1292-1281 (2573) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 16¢ | $4.99 | $0.77 | -$0.03 | 50% 25728-25420 (51148) |
Invested
$768.85
Value
$361.54
PnL
+$1.86
Record
51%
25532-24237 (49769)
Invested
$15.96
Value
$16.53
PnL
+$0.57
Record
64%
9866-5558 (15424)
Invested
$13.05
Value
$13.05
PnL
-$0
Record
48%
60671-65334 (126005)
Invested
$11.67
Value
$1.81
PnL
-$0.06
Record
49%
14639-15352 (29991)
Invested
$10
Value
$1.55
PnL
+$0.05
Record
50%
1292-1281 (2573)
Invested
$4.99
Value
$0.77
PnL
-$0.03
Record
50%
25728-25420 (51148)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.