Consensus PnL $59K · win rate 49% (7825–8043, n=15868) · PM monthly #328 · holds 98 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$59.1K
Record
7825W / 8043L
Win Rate
49.0%
of 15868 settled
Batting Avg
71.4%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1828
Source
PM monthly #328
Trades
26,569
Markets
25,209
Volume
$14.0M
Top consensus positions
98 in listed consensus markets · 53 of 98 on the consensus side (54%)- Will Athletic Club win on 2026-11-01?No $14K · now 51¢ · in at 53¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Juventus FC win on 2026-11-01?No $6.7K · now 56¢ · in at 57¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Spread: Bills (-13.5)Ravens $6.7K · now 81¢ · in at 81¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Spread: Rams (-14.5)Chargers $5.1K · now 76¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (100% of 7)
- Will SS Lazio win on 2026-11-01?No $4.4K · now 42¢ · in at 32¢with the consensus (61% of 43)
- Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-11-01?No $2.4K · now 82¢ · in at 62¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Celtic FC win on 2026-11-01?No $2.1K · now 99¢ · in at 56¢with the consensus (85% of 21)
- Exact Score: Falkirk FC 2 - 0 Celtic FC?No $1.5K · now 41¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
Specialties
3,507 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 64¢- Tennis
+73 pts
side won 100% of 28 · avg entry 27¢
ROI +80%
- Esports
+63 pts
side won 100% of 26 · avg entry 37¢
ROI +61%
- College Football
+50 pts
side won 100% of 183 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +51%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 10%(won 99% of 350)
- 30–50¢: 22%(won 100% of 762)
- 50–70¢: 23%(won 100% of 794)
- 70¢ and up: 46%(won 100% of 1601)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.