Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (77%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will FC Twente win on 2026-11-05?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 24¢ · $510 held · ends Nov 5
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 100%
$509.86
-$28.21
25.6¢ → 23.5¢
-8% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 24%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 77%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 63%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 27¢ | $182.81 | $172.81 | -$10 | 51% 25682-24404 (50086) |
NM NM-PCTR | Noavg 24.8¢ | $158.87 | $150.79 | -$8.08 | 64% 9850-5517 (15367) |
GC GC-PCTR | Noavg 24.8¢ | $127.69 | $123.33 | -$4.36 | 64% 9882-5579 (15461) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Noavg 25.9¢ | $57.51 | $52.23 | -$5.28 | 48% 61012-65825 (126837) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 25.5¢ | $10.55 | $9.03 | -$0.52 | 58% 46645-33616 (80261) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Noavg 25¢ | $6.55 | $1.67 | +$0.03 | 53% 16777-14914 (31691) |
Invested
$182.81
Value
$172.81
PnL
-$10
Record
51%
25682-24404 (50086)
Invested
$158.87
Value
$150.79
PnL
-$8.08
Record
64%
9850-5517 (15367)
Invested
$127.69
Value
$123.33
PnL
-$4.36
Record
64%
9882-5579 (15461)
Invested
$57.51
Value
$52.23
PnL
-$5.28
Record
48%
61012-65825 (126837)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$10.55
Value
$9.03
PnL
-$0.52
Record
58%
46645-33616 (80261)
Invested
$6.55
Value
$1.67
PnL
+$0.03
Record
53%
16777-14914 (31691)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
23.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.